New Poll shows Lunsford closing on McConnell – McCain increases lead in Ky.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/15-16. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/15-17 results) 

McConnell (R) 46 Lunsford (D) 42 

Stunning. That’s a 9-point swing in a month, with McConnell now falling well below the magical 50 percent mark. 

Lunsford’s gains come among Democrats (12-point gain) and independents (10-point gain). 12 percent of Democrats remain undecided, which isn’t surprising given that 1) it’s a southern state with a significant number of Dixiecrats, and 2) Lunsford has been a historically terrible Democrat. He seems to have learned from his mistakes, however, bending over backwards to try and reassure skittish Democratic constituencies. 

Also note the large number of undecided African Americans — still more evidence of the “reverse Bradley” effect we’re seeing in Southern states. In short, black respondents seem skittish about telling pollsters their electoral choices. We can safely assume they’ll slot in with the Democratic ticket at an over-90 percent rate. In this case, that could mean an extra two points for Lunsford. 

This one is going down to the wire, guys. And if you want to talk about crushing the GOP, eliminating their highest-ranking leader, and perhaps the only one left who can hold their coalition together, would be a stunner — a true leadership decapitation. 

In the presidential, it’s McCain 53-39, a slight improvement from last month’s 55-37. Bush won the state 60-40 in 2004, so at worse, Obama seems to be performing at John Kerry-levels. 

 

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